In January, I started blogging about Hyundai’s “job-loss insurance program.”
I thought it was a real tool to get prospects off the fence. And commented builders should try it.
Now Jet Blue has rolled out a similar tool. If passengers lose their jobs before the trip, they get a refund of the fare.
Smart!
Take the fear out of buying and get more sales.
Builders should do the same. Recently, John Burns’ webinar pointed out that the biggest impediment to buying was fear about employment, the economy, etc. So, we should work to minimize that fear, rather than roll out more of the same old tools.
Toll Bros. recently got very aggressive about an old idea, mortgage buydowns. I compliment them for trying something, but let’s look at the results.
They offered a permanent, 30-year buydown to 3.99%. They estimate that they made 70 gross sales in the three-week period of the “deal.” The deal period is over so they sure won’t get more, and we have yet to learn what cancellations would apply. And, even if that velocity continued, they would only accomplish 1213 sales for the year.
$20,000 to $25,000 is the per-unit cost of the buydown.
And it didn’t work very well.
I just have a suspicion that the job-loss “insurance” cost in our business wouldn’t be $25,000 per sale.
Hyundai eliminates some reasons to buy. And, SURPRISE, more people buy Hyundais.
Jet Blue, is dealing with smaller prices, but they are risking 100% of their revenue per passenger. If they refund a fare, and are unable to resell the seat, it’s all lost.
Hyundai at least closes the sale and has a performing car loan for a year. If the buyer loses his job, Hyundai takes back the car…and can resell it at SOME price.
Jet Blue doesn’t get the passenger part way to the destination. They either get the seat revenue or not. But they are being creative to remove one more barrier to discretionary travel. Good for them.
We COULD have a program like Hyundai that gives buyers some protection if they lose their jobs within a year of closing. It’s not even fear of the value dropping in the short term that is holding people back. They knew of that issue before they visited the sales offices. By their own actions, they are telling us that they have reconciled the possible VALUE EROSION problem.
So, if they don’t buy, what was UNresolved?
The biggest issue holding people back, as John Burns shows, is not interest rates. So, if it was not the #1 problem, we solved something that was less important. Why not solve the most important issue?
If our kids were having trouble at a lemonade stand, we would look at the reasons people were not buying, they suggest solving THEIR issue. A bigger sign, or a lower price, or more sugar would not solve warm drinks on a hot day. Ice would!
How about the same thinking about the big kids’ world of housing??!!
Many years ago I saw a great quote from a sales manager at (then) US Home: “People don’t go to the butcher shop just to look at the pork chops.”
It has stuck with me since then.
People coming in are on a mission! We need to help them improve their current housing situation. We need to solve their problem. When we do so, we solve ours.
They are worried about losing their jobs. Free granite countertops won’t solve that!
Job loss insurance might. And just having that tool would empower our sales teams with confidence.
If we had more confidence, we could sell more homes.
If we had more tools, we could sell more homes.
If we had more tools, we would also have more confidence…and we’d sell even more homes.
I believe this is something for builder associations to tackle. Get a price for several thousand policies each year for the next 2-3 years. Bid the prices down. Give the tools to the members.
But some builder associations are getting involved in more signage programs, arguing with the press and thinking of more websites. (And competing with some of their dwindling membership.)
Here’s my question.
HOW IS THAT WORKING FOR US?
Maybe, they should try and help their members solve the buyers’ reluctance. Simply sending more traffic is incomplete at best and ineffective at worst. (Toll reported a 34% increase in traffic, because of their buydown. People came. They just didn’t respond very well.)
I suspect there is one creative national builder who won’t wait for someone else to solve the problems. I suspect that right now, they are thinking about a Kick Butt job protection plan to stimulate home sales.
I bet I know which builder it will be.
Here’s my question.
HOW IS THAT WORKING FOR US?
Maybe, they should try and help their members solve the buyers’ reluctance. Simply sending more traffic is incomplete at best and ineffective at worst. (Toll reported a 34% increase in traffic, because of their buydown. People came. They just didn’t respond very well.)
I suspect there is one creative national builder who won’t wait for someone else to solve the problems. I suspect that right now, they are thinking about a Kick Butt job protection plan to stimulate home sales.
I bet I know which builder it will be.
I bet you do, too!
HARD
I welcome your feedback.

2 comments:
I think you're on the right track following the Hyundai model, but it's much easier to give up a car than to give up a home. How do you suggest applying the job loss insurance program to homebuyer?
Thanks, for the comment, Blogger. I don't know that I have the perfect design, but I have some thoughts. BTW Bank of America has a program that cancels the mortgage payments under certain circumstances within the first ten years. It's an idea worth considering...and tweaking. In their case, it's a fee of 5-8% of the mortgage payment after the Year One lead-in. But it's a ten year deal.
I think the buyer issues are much more focused on the initial period.
I think Hyundai is closer to the mark...after a lead in period (in their case one year) if something goes bad, you return the car for a loan forgiveness.
The protection is there for the buyer/borrower.
But it also follows a period where the buyer has become married to the car.
That's the beauty.
In housing's case, I suggest the coverage start after a similar honeymoon...and be for maybe 2-4 more years.
The longer the coverage, of course, the greater the risk...OF EVERYTHING!!
Sure the value will have appreciated but I am trying to solve the buyers' issues of now.
So...
maybe this is a concept...
After close of escrow...
and assuming the preceding 12 months' PITI/HOA payments HAVE all been made...
and the property has not been trashed...
if the buyer loses her job involuntarily...
and continues to be unemployed thereafter for 60 days (90 or 120?)...
the "insurance" plan makes the payments, as in BofA, for say a year.
But to preserve the security the payments s/b PITI HOA, so that the lender is not even worse off.
The difference is that it's a shorter period, after a period of performance and requires an inspection that confirms the condition is still as would be expected for a home of X years.
The plan could have a provision that the paid out amount is added to the loan at the back end. Or as a junior new loan with no interest accruing...who knows? That'd reduce the premium since the money would be recoverable later. Likely in 5-10 years when the home is sold or refinanced.
Maybe the seller/builder includes the plan for every home sale...as if they were providing an extended warranty.
If it is not a transactionally-negotiated item, it might not be a seller concession in the normal way. Think of it like your homes with rear yard landscaping, while competitors' are not. THAT's not a seller concession.
But if one-off deals included a rear landscape pkg., it would be.
If we did this industry wide, it's akin to opting into a higher building code. In competing with used houses, that is not a seller concession. It’s just another advantage of new.
Again, not sure I have all the answers. But I do know we have to keep asking the questions so we solve the BUYERS' issues.
Two final comments:
1. The BofA deal would be interesting to analyze. If we ever did get to 10% unemployment...and new home buyers were equally represented as newly-becoming unemployed...and the average loan was $350,000 (or you choose) ...with an interest rate of maybe 5.5%...and taxes/LMD/Mello etc. at 1.25%...and HOA of $200/mo...the total payout for one year would be about $27000.
Now do a present value calculation.
And figure out how many sales could be made while having an exposure of $27,000 for 1/10th of them.
2. Giving up a car isn't that easy. While Hyundai's program is a VOLUNTARY surrender, giving up a car is still tough. I only suspect that there is more violence in car repo's (INvoluntary, to be sure) than in home foreclosures.
Anyone else have an idea?
HARD
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